Tropical Storm Isaias path: Gulf Coast forecast and Florida’s 25-county emergency declaration

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to turn north across the Gulf and approach the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, October 9–10. In its 4 a.m. CDT advisory on Wednesday, October 7, the National Hurricane Center expected Isaias to become a hurricane by Thursday. Florida declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and North Florida on Tuesday, while the storm was still Tropical Depression Nine. The forecast does not establish an exact landfall location.

Where is Isaias, and what does the hurricane path show?

At 4 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Isaias was centered about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast takes the storm across the Gulf before a turn toward the north and an approach to the coast between eastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle.

Forecasters expect rapid strengthening over the next day or two. Isaias was still a tropical storm in the Wednesday morning advisory—not yet a hurricane. Its eventual strength, track and landfall point remain uncertain, and hazardous conditions can reach places outside the forecast cone.

The hurricane center warned of an increasing risk of dangerous winds and storm surge along parts of the northern Gulf Coast. As of the 4 a.m. advisory, no coastal watches or warnings were in effect; forecasters said hurricane and storm surge watches would likely be needed for part of the coast later Wednesday. Residents should check newer advisories rather than rely on that morning snapshot.

Which Florida counties are under a state of emergency?

Gov. Ron DeSantis signed Executive Order 26-202 on October 6 for Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington counties.

The declaration allows Florida to prepare and position response resources; it is not an evacuation order. State officials said they were staging supplies and equipment around Tallahassee and the Santa Rosa area. People in coastal or flood-prone communities should follow their county emergency management office for any local evacuation instructions.

What weather could Florida and inland areas see?

The hurricane center’s Wednesday morning forecast called for 3 to 6 inches of rain from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle from Friday through the weekend, with localized totals up to 10 inches. It also projected 1 to 3 inches across much of the Southeast, with localized amounts up to 5 inches as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. Flash flooding, urban flooding and isolated river flooding are possible.

That broad rainfall outlook matters to readers checking Atlanta or Nashville weather, but it is not a city-specific forecast. For Tallahassee and other North Florida communities, the precise effects will depend on how Isaias develops and where it comes ashore. Miami and Tampa are not on the Wednesday morning forecast track for the storm’s center, though local forecasts should still be checked as conditions change.

How should readers use the NOAA hurricane tracker?

For a current Isaias update, check the National Hurricane Center’s latest public advisory, forecast cone, key messages and watches and warnings. The cone describes uncertainty in the center’s path; it does not show the full reach of wind, rain or storm surge. Spaghetti models show possible computer-model tracks, not separate official forecasts, and should not replace the hurricane center’s guidance.

This is a new storm named Isaias in 2026. Searches for “Hurricane Isaias path” may also return maps of the separate 2020 hurricane, which traveled along the Atlantic coast rather than across the Gulf. Check the year and advisory time before using any storm map to make plans.