Brazil election: What the first-round result means and when Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face a runoff

Brazil’s presidential election will be decided in a runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026, after neither Flávio Bolsonaro nor President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won more than half of the valid votes in the first round on October 4. Bolsonaro finished first and Lula second, according to figures released by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, giving both candidates three weeks to make their case in a head-to-head contest.

What did the first round show?

With 99.99% of ballot boxes counted shortly after midnight on October 5, the electoral court reported 56,104,268 votes for Bolsonaro, or 47.03% of valid votes. Lula had 53,876,617 votes, or 45.16%. At that stage, Bolsonaro’s lead was about 2.23 million votes, or 1.87 percentage points. Those figures describe the court’s count at that time, rather than a separately confirmed final tally.

Bolsonaro’s first-place finish matters, but it does not make him president-elect. Brazil requires a candidate to win more than half of valid votes to settle the presidential race in the first round. Because neither frontrunner crossed that threshold, only the two highest-placed candidates advance to the second vote. Blank and null ballots do not count toward the majority a candidate needs.

The result leaves a close contest rather than a settled one. Bolsonaro starts the runoff with a lead from the first round; Lula has an opportunity to overtake him when voters choose between just two presidential candidates. Votes cast for other contenders do not automatically transfer to either finalist. Both campaigns will need to persuade those voters, as well as people who did not vote in the first round.

Who is on the runoff ballot?

Bolsonaro, a senator from Rio de Janeiro and the Liberal Party’s candidate, is making his first run for president. He is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. His running mate is federal lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar. Lula, the Workers’ Party candidate, is seeking another term as president with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin on his ticket, according to the electoral court’s candidate information.

The candidates presented different readings of the October 4 vote. Flávio Bolsonaro said his showing demonstrated a desire for change. Lula acknowledged that he had expected to win in the first round and said the runoff would begin a new phase of campaigning. Those are the candidates’ assessments of the result; the vote count itself establishes only who qualified for the next round and where they stood after the first vote.

The relatively small gap between the finalists makes the remaining campaign consequential. Bolsonaro can point to finishing first, while Lula can argue that the presidency is still within reach. Neither can treat the first-round percentages as a forecast of the October 25 result: voters who supported other candidates, abstained or chose a blank or null ballot can make different choices in the runoff.

What happens next?

Voters across Brazil will return to the polls on October 25 to choose between Bolsonaro and Lula. The electoral court’s schedule sets voting hours from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, including in places where the local time zone differs. The court will publish the second-round count as ballot-box results are processed.

The October 4 election also covered other offices, but the presidential runoff is a separate decision between the two finalists. Seven states are due to hold gubernatorial runoffs on the same day. For the presidency, the central question is no longer whether any candidate can clear a crowded first-round field: it is which of Bolsonaro or Lula wins the direct vote on October 25.