India’s 2026 Monsoon Fell 13% Short: Why the Regional Gaps Matter

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a nationwide rainfall deficit of about 13%, but the national figure conceals a much more uneven season. From June through September, the country received 759.4 millimetres of rain, or 87% of its long-period average of 868.6 millimetres, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). That makes it the fourth-driest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th-driest since 1901 in the department’s records.

The result is a marked change from the two preceding years. IMD recorded rainfall at 108% of the long-period average in both 2024 and 2025. Even the weaker 2023 season reached 94%. The last year with a lower nationwide percentage than 2026 was 2015, when rainfall reached 86% of its average. These comparisons describe the June-to-September season as a whole; they do not mean every farming district experienced the same conditions.

Where the rain fell short

The deepest broad regional gaps were in east and northeast India, which received 74% of their usual seasonal rain, and the south peninsula, which received 76%. Northwest India reached about 94% and central India 97% of their respective averages. IMD classified central and northwest India within their regional normal ranges, despite the national deficit.

Local differences were sharper still. Of India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 recorded deficient seasonal rainfall, 18 received normal rainfall and one—Odisha—received excess rain. At district level, 282 districts were classified as deficient and another 34 as largely deficient. Those figures explain why a relatively healthy total in central India cannot stand in for conditions across the country. They also caution against describing the entire monsoon as uniformly dry.

The timing mattered as much as the final total. Nationwide rainfall was just 65% of average in June, recovered to 101% in July, then slipped to 84% in August and 92% in September. Central India benefited from a particularly strong July, while the south peninsula remained below its seasonal average. A wet spell near the end of September could improve a cumulative total, but rain arriving late does not necessarily replace moisture that crops needed earlier.

What it could mean for farms and water

For agriculture, the first question is not simply how much rain fell across India, but whether it reached fields at the right stage of the growing season. A dry start can delay planting or germination. Later dry spells can affect crop growth, particularly where farmers rely on rainfall rather than assured irrigation. IMD measured 779.9 millimetres in the monsoon core zone, which includes much of the country’s rain-fed agricultural area—slightly below the lower limit of the zone’s normal rainfall range.

That is a reason to watch harvest results, not to assume a uniform crop loss. Crop outcomes will depend on the location and timing of rain, soil moisture, irrigation, crop choices and conditions through harvest. Some areas received adequate or excess rainfall even as others faced substantial shortages.

The water consequences are similarly local. Less rain can mean weaker replenishment of reservoirs, rivers and groundwater in affected catchments, leaving less water available for irrigation and other uses after the monsoon. But a national rainfall percentage cannot establish how full a particular reservoir is or whether a town faces a supply shortage. Storage levels, previous reserves, demand and subsequent rainfall all matter. Water conditions will be especially important as farmers prepare for the winter, or rabi, cropping season.

Will food prices rise?

A poor monsoon can put upward pressure on food prices if it reduces harvests or increases the cost of irrigation and supply. The pressure is likely to differ by crop and producing region, rather than appearing as an immediate, uniform rise across the food basket. Existing stocks, imports, transport costs and government measures can also affect what households eventually pay.

For now, the verified milestone is the rainfall deficit—not a confirmed nationwide decline in food production or a forecast of a particular price increase. The next evidence to watch is crop output from the most affected areas, reservoir storage and groundwater conditions, and how much rain arrives after the southwest monsoon season. Those measures will show how much of 2026’s uneven rainfall turns into a lasting strain on farms, water supplies and household budgets.